30% is palm oil, 24% is soybean oil, 12% is sunflower oil, and 20% is all other seed oils.
And the extra virgin olive oil? Only 1%!
But it remains the backbone of the Mediterranean diet and is part of the UNESCO heritage.
In Italy, together with Spain, we are among the largest consumers of this green gold: our annual consumption is around 500 thousand tons, while Greece has the highest per capita consumption in the EU, with around 12 kg per capita per year.
The European Union accounts for approximately 53% of world consumption.
How much will extra virgin olive oil cost in 2025?
In 2025, the olive harvest will increase by 30% compared to this year, while olive oil prices will significantly decrease for consumers.
The low production and high oil prices that have characterised the last year will become just a bad memory for the final consumer.
According to Ignacio Silva, CEO of the Spanish giant Deoleo , interviewed by Il Sole 24 Ore, the next olive growing campaign in the Mediterranean will see a 30% growth in the harvest and a stabilization of olive oil prices .
In Italy, Deoleo controls brands such as Bertolli, Carapelli, and Sasso; in Spain, it owns historic labels such as Carbonell and Maestros de Hojiblanca. In total, the group owns 27 brands and generates revenues of €837 million, primarily in Spain and Italy, the world's largest and second-largest olive oil producers, respectively.
A significant improvement is expected for the 2024-2025 olive growing campaign .
Current weather conditions are significantly more favorable than in recent years. The crucial months of April and May, when the olive trees blossom, passed without extreme heat and with adequate rainfall.
At present, if no adverse weather events occur in the coming months, we estimate that the 2024/2025 harvest will remain at normal levels, with production expected to be 30% higher than current levels in the Mediterranean area.
This increase in production will have a positive effect on prices, which should return to more normal levels thanks to the increase in inventories, resulting in lower prices than in the last two years.
Extra virgin olive oil prices in Italy in 2025
In Italy, the skyrocketing price of extra virgin olive oil over the past year has been largely attributed to shortages in production and supplies in Spain, one of the world's leading producers.
Olive production in Mediterranean countries has seen a sharp decline over the past two years, due to the sector's great vulnerability to weather conditions, which severely impact harvests.
The choice to use a linear regression model is motivated by its ease of interpretation, which allows for rapid forecasting. While it has some limitations, this model takes into account the key variables that have historically had a significant impact on the olive oil market, such as inflation, energy costs, supply, and demand.
It's crucial to keep in mind that the olive oil market is also influenced by global demand, with Spain, the world's leading producer, playing a key role in setting prices. Added to this are the trade policies of large purchasing groups, EU and international regulations, and currency fluctuations, all of which can cause sudden price swings for Italian extra virgin olive oil.
Another aspect to consider is the quality of the oil, which can change from year to year, as well as supplies, which in 2025 will still be limited compared to recent periods.
Furthermore, the purchasing and selling strategies adopted by industry operators, such as millers, wholesalers, and bottlers, could further influence market performance. To account for these uncertainties, we applied a conservative downward adjustment, ranging between 16% and 19.17%, to the forecasts provided by the linear regression model.
In light of these considerations, we estimate that average prices for extra virgin olive oil in 2025 will be between €8.40 and €9.70/kg , thus remaining in line with the current market trend.
Industry operators are advised to adopt a cautious approach, closely monitoring market developments and technological innovations in order to adapt their buying and selling strategies effectively.
In conclusion, Italian territories are characterized by a unique situation where climatic conditions, right down to the last minute, will be decisive in defining the quality of an olive oil harvest and, consequently, in determining the final selling prices of the oil.
Unfortunately, the lack of homogeneity in the Italian olive grove makes it impossible to define general values at the national level, but Spain can do so.
The price of oil in 2025 could drop further below the 9 euros mentioned above, but this is a difference that we small producers cannot accept; we must always conform to market prices.
